Fri, Oct 15, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 29 | 010 | 02 | 224 |
| PIT | 08 | 211 | 07 | 13 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:07PITMike RuppAssists: Paul Martin, Mark Letestu · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:57PITEric TangradiAssists: Mark Letestu, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 11:18NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Blake Comeau, Doug Weight · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 13:06NYIRadek MartinekAssists: Blake Comeau, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:51PITAlex GoligoskiPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:29PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:29NYITrevor Gillies: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:54PITMatt Cooke: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:19NYINino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:45NYINino Niederreiter: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:48PITKris Letang: Illegal check to head5 min · PPG
- P2 7:48NYIJosh Bailey: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:48PITKris Letang: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 14:50NYINino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:38NYIMilan Jurcina: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:45NYIZenon Konopka: Holding2 min
- P3 3:01PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
- P3 5:20PITMatt Cooke: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:16NYIMichael Grabner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:43PITDeryk Engelland: Interference2 min
- OT 0:52NYIMilan Jurcina: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Talbot
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Hunter – Nielsen – Moulson5:11
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Weight – Grabner – Niederreiter5:40
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Comeau – Bailey7:53
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Hillen5:58
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Eaton – Martinek11:09
xG 0.21–0.50 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Mottau – Jurcina10:32
xG 0.30–0.94 (24%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Talbot – Kennedy4:54
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby3:41
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Comrie – Malkin – Tangradi3:24
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang5:14
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Hutchinson – Martin2:20
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hutchinson – Engelland4:45
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).