Fri, Oct 15, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 219 | 210 | 111 | 540 |
| CBJ | 011 | 19 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Jack Skille, Nick Boynton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:40CHIMarian HossaAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jassen Cullimore · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–0
- P2 1:11CBJR.J. UmbergerSHAssists: Derek Dorsett · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 9:46CHIPatrick SharpSHGWGAssists: Jake Dowell · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 11:48CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Troy Brouwer, Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 0:15CHITomas KopeckyAssists: Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.21 xG5–1
- P3 13:39CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: R.J. Umberger, Rostislav Klesla · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:39CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57CBJKris Russell: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:28CHITomas Kopecky: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:55CHIJack Skille: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:24CHITroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:48CHITomas Kopecky: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kopecky – Toews10:31
xG 0.99–0.19 (84%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg8:32
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sharp – Bickell – Brouwer7:25
xG 0.60–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Bickell2:05
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook12:13
xG 1.42–0.57 (71%)attempts 18–20goals 2–1
- Cullimore – Leddy8:10
xG 0.67–0.06 (91%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Boynton – Hendry7:39
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Umberger – Brassard3:26
xG 0.19–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Clark – MacKenzie – Dorsett7:32
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Voracek – Filatov5:53
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Moreau – Pahlsson – Filatov2:53
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hejda – Methot2:19
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Russell10:34
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hejda – Stralman13:30
xG 0.47–0.90 (34%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).