Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 26 | 02 | 319 |
| MTL | 111 | 213 | 116 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06MTLBrian GiontaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:32OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 10:20OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 11:13OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Chris Phillips · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:39MTLJeff HalpernAssists: P.K. Subban, Travis Moen · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 17:29MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 16:01MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:58MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Interference2 min
- P1 5:19MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:18OTTJarkko Ruutu: Holding2 min
- P2 7:34MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:34OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:34OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:39OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:27OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:15OTTErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:24OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Spezza – Michalek10:50
xG 0.54–0.27 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 3–1
- Kovalev – Regin – Shannon8:44
xG 0.21–0.19 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Kelly – Winchester7:07
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Fisher – Neil – Foligno8:45
xG 0.05–0.43 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLee – Karlsson8:17
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:25
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Campoli2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:04
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 2–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen5:20
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot4:42
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Darche – Boyd – Pouliot4:26
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban13:09
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Gill – Gorges13:27
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek13:37
xG 0.44–0.71 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).