Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Boston Bruins 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 416 | 011 | 435 |
| NJD | 011 | 114 | 07 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:45NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Zach Parise, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 5:38BOSJordan CaronAssists: Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–1
- P2 10:44BOSMichael RyderGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 16:43BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Gregory Campbell, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 18:09BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.20 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:11NJDZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:56BOSJordan Caron: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:42BOSBrad Marchand: Kneeing2 min
- P3 3:34NJDMatthew Corrente: Interference2 min
- P3 12:42BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:26NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Sestito
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:16
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron8:21
xG 0.97–0.63 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Seguin8:48
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand9:59
xG 0.19–0.86 (18%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Hunwick2:42
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ference – Hunwick7:32
xG 0.46–0.43 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart11:31
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Parise – Zajac11:58
xG 0.92–0.29 (76%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Mair – Sestito – Pelley11:18
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Elias6:52
xG 0.77–0.31 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Langenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Josefson2:28
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Taormina15:30
xG 0.86–0.35 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Greene14:52
xG 1.54–1.28 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Corrente2:59
xG 0.13–0.12 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).