Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Colorado Avalanche 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 08 | 213 | 230 |
| NYI | 07 | 310 | 28 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:06NYIMilan JurcinaSHAssists: Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 18:01NYIMilan JurcinaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 19:00NYIJosh BaileyPPGWGAssists: PA Parenteau, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 2:19COLChris StewartAssists: John-Michael Liles, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 4:11NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: PA Parenteau · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 10:08COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Mark Olver · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 19:40NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Jon Sim, Milan Jurcina · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:05COLChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:05NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:21COLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P1 17:55COLKyle Cumiskey: Interference2 min
- P2 2:06NYIAndrew MacDonald: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:57COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29NYIDoug Weight: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:31COLKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 6:30NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:05COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:58COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:34NYIDoug Weight: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Jones – Duchene7:40
xG 0.68–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Porter – Stastny – Stewart2:15
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi5:05
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly6:31
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Holos11:41
xG 0.67–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – Wilson8:47
xG 0.43–0.09 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Cumiskey9:01
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Tavares – Niederreiter8:39
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Nielsen – Grabner5:59
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Weight – Comeau – Bailey8:00
xG 0.13–0.61 (17%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Jurcina – MacDonald9:29
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Eaton – Martinek13:19
xG 0.16–0.58 (21%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
- Mottau – Wisniewski13:31
xG 0.37–0.98 (28%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).