Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 112 | 39 | 532 |
| PHI | 18 | 017 | 05 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:43PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Scott Hartnell, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 11:31PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 19:15PITMark LetestuGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 3:13PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Mike Comrie · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 4:37PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 16:36PITMatt CookeENAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.58 xG5–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:33PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:33PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:42PHIJeff Carter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:08PITEric Tangradi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:25PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44PHIJody Shelley: Interference2 min
- P2 4:59PHIKimmo Timonen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:31PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:41PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49PHIJeff Carter: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:40PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:54PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:32PITMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:40PHINikolay Zherdev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:40PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:34PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Cooke – Talbot – Kennedy2:27
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Comrie – Malkin – Tangradi2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutchinson – Engelland5:49
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy4:54
xG 0.13–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Engelland – Goligoski2:39
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino7:54
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe3:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Nodl4:38
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Zherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk6:14
xG 0.07–0.15 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle5:12
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros8:38
xG 0.38–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Coburn2:47
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).