Sat, Oct 16, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Buffalo Sabres 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 219 | 110 | 012 | 341 |
| CHI | 19 | 17 | 25 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 6:52BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Steve Montador, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.43 xG1–1
- P1 7:07BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Patrick Kaleta · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 1:04CHIMarian HossaAssists: Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 17:15BUFCody McCormickAssists: Jochen Hecht, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–2
- P3 9:36CHIDave BollandAssists: Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 12:52CHIPatrick SharpPPGWGAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:51CHITomas Kopecky: Interference2 min
- P1 15:07BUFDrew Stafford: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:03CHIJake Dowell: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:28CHIViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:28BUFChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:28BUFRob Niedermayer: Elbowing2 min
- P2 8:32CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:07BUFChris Butler: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:07CHIJonathan Toews: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:53BUFJordan Leopold: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:09CHITomas Kopecky: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:51CHINick Boynton: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:13BUFJordan Leopold: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:27CHIDuncan Keith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Connolly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Connolly – McCormick9:17
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford10:11
xG 0.71–0.38 (65%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – Ennis9:47
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe6:21
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Butler11:36
xG 0.87–0.17 (84%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Rivet – Sekera12:50
xG 0.98–0.31 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Leopold – Myers12:39
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestPisani – Bolland – Bickell6:49
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp2:47
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane4:52
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Stalberg2:09
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cullimore – Boynton2:29
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Boynton – Hjalmarsson11:29
xG 0.17–0.49 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook16:23
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).