Sat, Oct 16, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 2, Phoenix Coyotes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 114 | 06 | 18 | 233 |
| PHX | 112 | 08 | 06 | 00 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:50PHXMartin HanzalAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 7:03DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Patrick Eaves, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 4:44DETNiklas KronwallPPGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:07DETJiri Hudler: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:03PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 17:32PHXPetr Prucha: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:38DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P2 15:25DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:53PHXTaylor Pyatt: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:48DETPatrick Eaves: Holding2 min
- P3 14:05PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- OT 0:44PHXEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:51PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 2:51PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:51DETTomas Holmstrom: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg8:22
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Miller4:44
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm4:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler7:17
xG 0.09–0.25 (25%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJanik – Kronwall7:58
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Salei – Stuart2:24
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Lidstrom – Stuart11:21
xG 0.37–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Vrbata – Wolski – Hanzal9:31
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Belanger – Prucha – Korpikoski4:34
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris8:33
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak8:28
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Schlemko11:19
xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson2:15
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Morris12:28
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).