Sat, Oct 16, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Atlanta Thrashers 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 04 | 29 | 215 | 428 |
| SJS | 212 | 018 | 09 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:20SJSDany HeatleyPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.73 xG0–1
- P1 15:41SJSRyane CloweAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 1:23ATLAndrew LaddSHAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 13:58ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Andrew Ladd, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 13:40ATLDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Chris Thorburn, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 15:51ATLEvander KaneAssists: Rich Peverley, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:22ATLFreddy Meyer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:35ATLRich Peverley: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:35SJSDevin Setoguchi: Diving2 min
- P1 14:45ATLJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:30SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P2 1:11ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min
- P2 1:11SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:11ATLBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:32ATLNigel Dawes: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:48SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:27SJSPatrick Marleau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Ladd – Little12:45
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Antropov – Dawes – Peverley7:10
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Slater – Bergfors – Kane8:53
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov11:11
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:22
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Sopel – Hainsey12:05
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Oduya – Meyer15:43
xG 0.26–1.20 (18%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Clowe – Couture13:18
xG 1.09–0.16 (88%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Mitchell8:07
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nichol – McCarthy – McLaren4:09
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi3:45
xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers14:21
xG 0.99–0.24 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray16:04
xG 0.93–0.40 (70%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic14:05
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).