Sun, Oct 17, 2010·Honda Center, Anaheim
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 011 | 217 | 238 |
| ANA | 08 | 214 | 113 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:41ANACam FowlerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 9:44ANAToni LydmanAssists: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 1:01PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Shane Doan, Eric Belanger · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:19PHXEric BelangerAssists: Shane Doan, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 14:23ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:30ANASheldon Brookbank: Interference2 min
- P1 18:17ANASaku Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:19PHXScottie Upshall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:09PHXVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:09ANADan Sexton: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:51PHXRadim Vrbata: Holding2 min
- P3 19:14PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall10:12
xG 0.97–0.51 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak12:49
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Wolski – Hanzal6:43
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris2:57
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson14:35
xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Morris – Yandle2:52
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Morris – Lepisto10:55
xG 0.38–0.58 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:08
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura4:34
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Blake – Beleskey – Carter10:25
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Sexton13:09
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMara – Fowler7:21
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Mara – Brookbank7:14
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky14:45
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).