Sun, Oct 17, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 112 | 011 | 133 |
| VAN | 212 | 17 | 29 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37VANAndrew AlbertsAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:43VANMason RaymondPPGWGAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–2
- P2 9:38VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Tanner Glass, Mason Raymond · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 18:13CARPatrick O'SullivanAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Joe Corvo · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 6:25VANMason RaymondAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 14:10VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 8:11CARChad LaRose: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:44CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:09VANJeff Tambellini: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:25VANAndrew Alberts: Interference2 min
- P2 5:48CARTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min
- P2 7:31VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:49VANJeff Tambellini: Holding2 min
- P3 9:29CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:12VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:37VANGuillaume Desbiens: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:27CARTuomo Ruutu: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:50VANJannik Hansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:50CARChad LaRose: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:50CARChad LaRose: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:50VANJannik Hansen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Samsonov – LaRose – Skinner3:08
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ruutu – O'Sullivan – Sutter7:37
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Skinner2:16
xG 0.05–0.19 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Dwyer – Bowman4:09
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – Babchuk4:55
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain4:49
xG 0.22–0.81 (21%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason10:33
xG 0.18–0.86 (17%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Tambellini – Hansen6:05
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Raymond7:45
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres4:06
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Schaefer – Desbiens – Glass2:44
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa8:01
xG 1.38–0.32 (81%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Alberts – Rome6:30
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler9:26
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).