Mon, Oct 18, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 15 | 06 | 11 | 220 |
| TOR | 08 | 010 | 112 | 00 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:17NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 17:55TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Tomas Kaberle · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 3:26NYIJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, PA Parenteau · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:12TORFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:51NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:19NYIJohn Tavares: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:44TORKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:08NYIAndrew MacDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 17:20NYIJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:07TORBrett Lebda: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Konopka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestWeight – Parenteau – Comeau3:38
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sim – Nielsen – Grabner2:49
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Weight – Comeau – Niederreiter2:07
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sim – Gillies – Konopka2:17
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jurcina – MacDonald14:24
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Eaton – Martinek17:22
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Mottau – Wisniewski13:16
xG 0.14–0.94 (13%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Armstrong – Brent12:35
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak16:32
xG 0.83–0.35 (71%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:23
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Zigomanis – Orr – Brown4:18
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn16:31
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda11:06
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf17:16
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).