Mon, Oct 18, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 117 | 08 | 29 | 334 |
| NYR | 112 | 010 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:41COLChris StewartPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Milan Hejduk · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 18:09NYRAlex FrolovAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:20COLChris StewartPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 7:46COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:26NYRBrandon Prust: Holding2 min
- P1 4:26COLChris Stewart: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:30NYRMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:40COLKyle Quincey: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:23COLTJ Galiardi: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:23NYRMichael Del Zotto: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:04COLKyle Cumiskey: Holding2 min
- P2 8:44COLPaul Stastny: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:41COLCody McLeod: Holding2 min
- P3 2:47COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:51NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – McLeod – O'Reilly4:56
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene13:25
xG 0.96–0.77 (55%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi10:26
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Porter – Winnik – O'Reilly2:02
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Wilson8:02
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Cumiskey – Holos4:56
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hannan – Cumiskey2:32
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov12:25
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Frolov – Stepan8:41
xG 0.83–0.87 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Avery – Boyle – Prust8:23
xG 0.29–1.14 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Eminger – Gilroy8:20
xG 0.87–0.82 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Girardi – Del Zotto12:41
xG 0.39–0.75 (34%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Staal16:38
xG 0.79–1.29 (38%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).