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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 18, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh

Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.

PIT winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT012111111234
PIT3172705529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:39PITMark LetestuPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:53PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:02PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Mike Comrie, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 5:40OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 10:07PITPascal DupuisAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P2 10:32PITKris LetangAssists: Mike Rupp, Craig Adams · Slap, 0.03 xG1–5
  7. P3 4:19OTTChris CampoliAssists: Jason Spezza, Jarkko Ruutu · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:40OTTPeter Regin: Interference2 min
  2. P1 4:55PITAndrew Hutchinson: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 7:00OTTChris Neil: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P1 13:00OTTChris Neil: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P1 17:11OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 17:11PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 4:07PITBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 19:00PITAndrew Hutchinson: High sticking double minor4 min
  9. P3 0:31OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 8:05OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 8:05OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 8:05OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 8:05PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 8:05PITBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
  15. P3 8:05PITBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 8:05OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 8:05OTTMatt Carkner: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
47% to win53% to win
← OTT attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Talbot won the faceoff against Spezza
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTPIT
34Shots on goal29
1.6Expected goals4.1
51Shot attempts55
28Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
34Penalty minutes22
23Hits17
11Blocked shots10
1Giveaways6
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. bestFisher – Foligno – Winchester5:23

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0

  2. Kovalev – Michalek – Regin3:37

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Kovalev – Regin – Shannon4:39

    xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

  4. Fisher – Shannon – Foligno3:07

    xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPhillips – Carkner8:46

    xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0

  2. Campoli – Karlsson2:18

    xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  3. Gonchar – Campoli2:37

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestCooke – Talbot – Kennedy7:00

    xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0

  2. Comrie – Malkin – Letestu7:39

    xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0

  3. Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:34

    xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0

  4. Adams – Rupp – Tangradi4:13

    xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Lovejoy8:31

    xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0

  2. Martin – Letang13:57

    xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0

  3. Hutchinson – Engelland9:11

    xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 4.1 xGOTT 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #686 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.

PIT winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).