Mon, Oct 18, 2010·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 110 | 19 | 07 | 234 |
| CHI | 010 | 011 | 210 | 12 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:57STLDavid PerronAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, David Backes · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 9:28STLDavid PerronAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 13:12CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 15:43CHIMarian HossaAssists: Jonathan Toews, Tomas Kopecky · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 3:50CHIPatrick SharpGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Jassen Cullimore · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:45STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:44CHIJohn Scott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:54STLErik Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:35STLJaroslav Halak: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Berglund11:14
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron9:39
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
- Winchester – Sobotka – D'Agostini5:51
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – Crombeen12:31
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson15:13
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo14:32
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Brewer – Polak17:34
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Skille – Scott2:23
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Sharp – Brouwer – Kane5:37
xG 0.07–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane6:24
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell8:59
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boynton – Hjalmarsson15:32
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Boynton – Keith3:11
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook18:40
xG 0.52–0.74 (42%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).