Tue, Oct 19, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 08 | 15 | 321 |
| WSH | 010 | 18 | 018 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:12BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:57BOSMilan LucicGWGAssists: Johnny Boychuk, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 7:42WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Jason Chimera, Matt Hendricks · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 2:08BOSMatt HunwickAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:15BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:53WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:31BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:07BOSMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:59WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06WSHJohn Erskine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:03WSHDavid Steckel: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:27BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:23WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:23BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40BOSGregory Campbell: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:40BOSGregory Campbell: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic8:25
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Recchi – Ryder – Seguin10:29
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron10:29
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand8:13
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk12:11
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Ference – Hunwick3:09
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick4:45
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Fleischmann – Semin10:59
xG 0.37–0.29 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:21
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Chimera – Fehr – Johansson8:02
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carlson11:53
xG 0.76–0.08 (90%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Poti – Sloan12:13
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Schultz – Alzner11:16
xG 0.31–0.99 (24%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).