Thu, Oct 21, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 013 | 113 | 139 |
| BOS | 18 | 218 | 18 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:32BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:22BOSJordan CaronGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Matt Hunwick · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:16BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 9:27WSHJason ChimeraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 19:44BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:57BOSAndrew Ference: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:06WSHMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:35BOSMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:29WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55WSHEric Fehr: Interference2 min
- P3 2:00BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:34WSHJason Chimera: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Fleischmann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom13:55
xG 1.79–0.46 (80%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Laich – Semin – Johansson9:49
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – King3:50
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fleischmann – Fehr7:53
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoti – Schultz15:59
xG 1.81–0.55 (77%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- Erskine – Carlson13:32
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Sloan – Alzner11:39
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Ryder – Seguin8:00
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand8:51
xG 0.50–0.51 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron9:07
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic11:27
xG 0.14–1.63 (8%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg4:26
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:20
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick6:25
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).