Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 215 | 07 | 010 | 232 |
| TOR | 08 | 011 | 16 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Derek Stepan · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:12NYRArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Michal Rozsival, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 11:04TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:21NYRDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:21TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:36TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:55NYRDerek Stepan: Interference2 min
- P1 12:53NYRTodd White: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:11NYRSean Avery: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:41NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:56TORBrett Lebda: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:16NYRBrandon Prust: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFrolov – Christensen – Prust9:15
xG 0.89–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:05
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan10:37
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- White – Boogaard – Boyle2:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy8:32
xG 0.98–0.11 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Staal13:04
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Girardi3:04
xG 0.03–0.01 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestZigomanis – Orr – Brown3:59
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zigomanis – Versteeg – Kessel2:02
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown2:30
xG 0.01–0.01 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak7:53
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kaberle – Schenn14:46
xG 0.55–0.58 (48%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf13:53
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Lebda10:22
xG 0.06–0.71 (8%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).