Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 27 | 07 | 18 | 322 |
| PHI | 114 | 118 | 010 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35ANALubomir VisnovskyAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 4:16PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:52ANAJason BlakeAssists: Teemu Selanne, Andreas Lilja · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:50PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn · Backhand, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 18:14ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey, Corey Perry · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:23ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:23PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:08ANALubomir Visnovsky: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:42PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 14:31ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
- P1 18:38ANAToni Lydman: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:02PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:42ANATodd Marchant: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:04ANAAndreas Lilja: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:54PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:39PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMarchant – Parros – Bodie2:22
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Carter – Sexton8:05
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey11:51
xG 0.89–1.11 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake8:51
xG 0.16–0.82 (16%)attempts 4–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Lydman – Visnovsky16:12
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
- Mara – Lilja10:45
xG 0.48–0.67 (41%)attempts 8–22goals 2–0
- Brookbank – Syvret7:43
xG 0.86–1.29 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino10:04
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – van Riemsdyk2:04
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Powe2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Nodl – van Riemsdyk7:17
xG 0.70–0.80 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Carle3:22
xG 1.55–0.08 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros8:07
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Pronger – Timonen3:40
xG 0.11–0.18 (37%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).