Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 13 | 18 | 19 | 320 |
| MTL | 010 | 05 | 014 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20NJDZach PariseGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Dainius Zubrus · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 14:59NJDJason ArnottAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Jamie Langenbrunner · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 3:38NJDMatt TaorminaAssists: Jason Arnott · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:34MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:34NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10MTLBrian Gionta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:51MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:45NJDDavid Clarkson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:11MTLBrian Gionta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:33MTLRoman Hamrlik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:45NJDDavid Clarkson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:56NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestArnott – Langenbrunner – Pelley8:33
xG 0.28–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Parise – Zajac10:32
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Mair – Clarkson – Sestito3:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Zubrus2:04
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Taormina13:41
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Corrente16:24
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Magnan – Greene12:56
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Lapierre – Pouliot8:00
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Boyd – Eller4:01
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Cammalleri4:08
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn9:01
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Subban3:01
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek11:54
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gill – Gorges13:26
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).