Thu, Oct 21, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 211 | 117 | 13 | 438 |
| NSH | 16 | 110 | 15 | 03 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 0:54PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Mike Comrie, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 8:03NSHCody FransonPPAssists: Francis Bouillon, Martin Erat · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:51PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Chris Kunitz, Andrew Hutchinson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:08NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Colin Wilson, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 12:56PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:49PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Tyler Kennedy · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:43PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:17NSHDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:42PITEric Tangradi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:47PITSidney Crosby: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28NSHKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:28PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:28NSHKevin Klein: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:22NSHCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P2 18:43PITMike Rupp: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:13NSHNick Spaling: Interference2 min
- P3 10:54NSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min
- P3 10:54PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:04NSHPekka Rinne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestComrie – Malkin – Letestu4:30
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cooke – Talbot – Kennedy4:26
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby4:42
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Dupuis – Talbot3:10
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang10:52
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Hutchinson – Goligoski3:36
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hutchinson – Lovejoy4:36
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Ward – Tootoo11:37
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
- Smithson – Kostitsyn – Spaling6:37
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist8:38
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Dumont – Erat – Wilson6:51
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Franson10:54
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weber11:26
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Klein2:03
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).