Fri, Oct 22, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Calgary Flames 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 310 | 15 | 28 | 623 |
| CBJ | 14 | 07 | 111 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13CGYNiklas HagmanAssists: Rene Bourque, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 14:50CGYIan WhiteAssists: Matt Stajan, Jarome Iginla · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 16:27CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Rostislav Klesla, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P1 19:31CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 5:08CGYRene BourqueSHAssists: Mikael Backlund, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 10:07CBJJan HejdaAssists: Chris Clark, Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 11:43CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 19:54CGYRene BourqueAssists: Jarome Iginla, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:42CBJJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:13CBJKyle Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:42CBJKyle Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:53CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:53CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:15CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:41CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:23CGYIan White: Interference2 min
- P2 11:40CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:31CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:06CBJNate Guenin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:59CGYRene Bourque: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Tanguay – Stajan9:11
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Conroy – Jackman – Meyer4:35
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Morrison – Glencross – Backlund5:54
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque9:52
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Mikkelson9:54
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Bouwmeester – Giordano11:53
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – White10:42
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Nash8:09
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Voracek – Filatov3:27
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Umberger – Dorsett3:51
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Clark – MacKenzie – Wilson2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Guenin12:27
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot10:07
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Hejda – Stralman13:59
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).