Fri, Oct 22, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 316 | 110 | 17 | 533 |
| ATL | 010 | 114 | 16 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10TBLBrett ClarkPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 16:05TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 17:50TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 8:07ATLJim SlaterAssists: Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 17:22TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 13:36ATLDustin ByfuglienPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:28TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Victor Hedman, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.49 xG5–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 2:42ATLBen Eager: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 2:42TBLVincent Lecavalier: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:42ATLBen Eager: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:53ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:50ATLBrent Sopel: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:18TBLDana Tyrell: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:23TBLMatt Smaby: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:04TBLDominic Moore: Diving2 min
- P1 16:51ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:56TBLMartin St. Louis: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:57TBLMartin St. Louis: Interference2 min
- P2 15:05TBLMike Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:27ATLAlexander Burmistrov: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:27TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:27TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:27ATLChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:27ATLBen Eager: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:16TBLTeddy Purcell: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:53ATLBrent Sopel: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:07
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell2:13
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Ritola3:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos5:20
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman10:18
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Smaby – Jones7:35
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin9:15
xG 0.43–0.66 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Kane – Burmistrov2:46
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov4:46
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stewart – Ladd – Little7:27
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Modin – Boulton – Slater5:05
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien10:42
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey9:19
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Meyer9:19
xG 0.02–0.33 (5%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).