Fri, Oct 22, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 19 | 08 | 225 |
| STL | 112 | 17 | 29 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31STLDavid PerronAssists: T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:26CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:12STLDavid PerronAssists: T.J. Oshie, Carlo Colaiacovo · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 9:35CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Troy Brouwer, Bryan Bickell · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 11:01STLRoman PolakGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:57STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Andy McDonald, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:58STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:58CHIJake Dowell: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:13STLJay McClement: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:01CHIJack Skille: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35STLErik Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:41STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:41CHIJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:20STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:20CHITomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:20STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:07CHIBrent Seabrook: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 19:45CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell5:30
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sharp – Brouwer – Kane11:37
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg2:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp2:26
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook20:42
xG 0.97–0.67 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Boynton – Hjalmarsson16:57
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Boynton – Keith2:22
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Backes – Oshie – Perron13:39
xG 0.77–0.73 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Sobotka5:09
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Berglund12:00
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini11:52
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Johnson16:30
xG 0.56–0.28 (67%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Brewer – Polak18:00
xG 0.89–0.81 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo13:59
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).