Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 217 | 07 | 334 |
| OTT | 04 | 012 | 03 | 019 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:54MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:42MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Josh Gorges, Scott Gomez · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 18:37MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:11OTTJesse Winchester: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:12MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:11MTLRoman Hamrlik: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:26OTTMike Fisher: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:26MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:38OTTMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 11:38MTLJeff Halpern: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:38OTTJarkko Ruutu: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:02MTLHal Gill: Interference2 min
- P3 6:09OTTChris Campoli: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:40OTTNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40OTTMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Lapierre – Pouliot10:28
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen2:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Darche – Moen – Eller6:11
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn12:10
xG 0.39–0.69 (36%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Gorges17:46
xG 0.93–0.78 (54%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek12:48
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Picard – Subban15:26
xG 0.57–0.71 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Fisher – Michalek13:07
xG 1.17–0.09 (93%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly10:43
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Foligno9:25
xG 0.07–0.36 (15%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester3:48
xG 0.04–0.53 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Phillips13:13
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Campoli – Karlsson3:28
xG 0.01–0.02 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hale – Karlsson10:48
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).