Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 6, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 314 | 17 | 629 |
| NJD | 09 | 04 | 114 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:33BUFTyler MyersGWGAssists: Mike Grier, Rob Niedermayer · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:10BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Mike Grier · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 8:17BUFPatrick KaletaAssists: Jordan Leopold, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–0
- P2 18:12BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Gerbe · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–0
- P3 11:25NJDZach PariseAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–1
- P3 11:50BUFThomas VanekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.40 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:17NJDDainius Zubrus: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:50BUFCody McCormick: Holding2 min
- P2 11:57NJDDainius Zubrus: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:41NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:50BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:00BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe10:45
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Ennis7:34
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford11:15
xG 0.72–0.88 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hecht – Connolly – McCormick10:04
xG 0.06–0.33 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador16:08
xG 1.48–0.74 (67%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Sekera – Weber13:32
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Myers2:14
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Parise – Zajac12:58
xG 1.39–0.28 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Vasyunov4:19
xG 0.05–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Elias – Clarkson – Josefson7:25
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Arnott – Langenbrunner – Pelley2:47
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMagnan – Greene11:47
xG 0.90–0.31 (74%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Corrente – Taormina3:03
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Taormina3:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).