Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 113 | 114 | 15 | 00 | 332 |
| WSH | 04 | 116 | 218 | 16 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02ATLAndrew LaddPPAssists: Anthony Stewart, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P2 0:38WSHAlexander SeminUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:33ATLEvander KaneAssists: Rich Peverley, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 5:09WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:28WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 19:27ATLEvander KaneAssists: Toby Enstrom, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 1:37WSHTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Eric Fehr, Tyler Sloan · Backhand, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:36WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P1 18:22WSHJohn Erskine: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:22WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:41ATLJim Slater: Interference2 min
- P2 15:19ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:32ATLDustin Byfuglien: Charging5 min
- P2 17:32WSHJohn Erskine: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:32ATLDustin Byfuglien: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:54WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:38WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:48WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Perreault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestModin – Slater – Kane7:02
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Boulton – Stewart – Peverley3:53
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little8:50
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov13:00
xG 0.06–0.54 (9%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey10:28
xG 0.81–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien10:37
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Oduya – Meyer12:24
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Semin – Perreault8:49
xG 0.82–0.09 (90%)attempts 20–3goals 3–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom14:37
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Beagle4:01
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fleischmann – Fehr7:44
xG 0.21–0.90 (19%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Carlson12:55
xG 0.99–0.63 (61%)attempts 26–13goals 2–0
- Schultz – Carlson2:27
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Alzner6:48
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).