Sat, Oct 23, 2010·United Center, Chicago
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 18 | 220 | 340 |
| CHI | 211 | 013 | 08 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:45CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.52 xG0–2
- P2 19:24CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Jakub Voracek, Marc Methot · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 1:33CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Antoine Vermette · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 6:29CBJAntoine VermetteGWGAssists: Marc Methot · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:58CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:07CHIViktor Stalberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:13CBJNikita Filatov: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:36CBJRick Nash: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:31CHITroy Brouwer: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 9:49CHIDave Bolland: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClark – Pahlsson – Huselius8:02
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek11:30
xG 0.48–0.36 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Filatov3:33
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Dorsett8:57
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Tyutin – Holden11:34
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman13:32
xG 0.61–0.76 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Klesla – Methot16:09
xG 0.56–0.93 (37%)attempts 11–21goals 2–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Toews – Kane8:03
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg2:58
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews3:39
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bolland – Brouwer7:21
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoynton – Hjalmarsson12:03
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Cullimore – Boynton2:08
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook17:33
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).