Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 212 | 210 | 630 |
| COL | 212 | 110 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12LAKAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Michal Handzus, Wayne Simmonds · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:17COLMilan HejdukAssists: Matt Duchene, David Jones · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 11:15LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P1 15:03COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Milan Hejduk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 4:58LAKBrad RichardsonAssists: Brayden Schenn, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 17:15LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 18:10COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 11:34COLMilan HejdukPPAssists: Paul Stastny, John-Michael Liles · Slap, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 13:04LAKBrad RichardsonSHGWGAssists: Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 17:05LAKBrad RichardsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:26COLKyle Cumiskey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:38LAKJustin Williams: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:38COLJohn-Michael Liles: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:53LAKAndrei Loktionov: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:21LAKMichal Handzus: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:42LAKRyan Smyth: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:21LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:36COLRyan Wilson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:11COLMilan Hejduk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:01LAKJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:40LAKWayne Simmonds: Butt ending5 min · PPG
- P3 8:40LAKWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:59COLChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Richardson – Kopitar4:30
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Loktionov4:33
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds5:14
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll8:38
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Greene13:13
xG 0.47–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Johnson9:10
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Harrold – Drewiske7:11
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestVan Der Gulik – Porter – McLeod3:12
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene10:00
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi11:00
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly6:19
xG 0.09–0.44 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Holos11:19
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hannan – Cumiskey4:53
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Cumiskey – Holos2:10
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).