Sat, Oct 23, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 016 | 213 | 110 | 12 | 441 |
| PHX | 014 | 04 | 318 | 03 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:17CARPatrick DwyerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 9:45CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–0
- P3 1:21CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:45PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 17:58PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P3 18:20PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Kyle Turris, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:52CARAnton BabchukGWGAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P2 2:32CARDrayson Bowman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51PHXScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
- P2 8:53PHXWojtek Wolski: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:52PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:59PHXAdrian Aucoin: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:11CARZac Dalpe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:09PHXKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – LaRose – Staal12:25
xG 1.44–0.91 (61%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Samsonov – Kostopoulos – Sutter9:04
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Bowman – Dalpe6:06
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner11:25
xG 0.23–0.54 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain13:04
xG 1.30–0.71 (65%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Pitkanen – Babchuk3:49
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Harrison – Babchuk9:56
xG 0.40–0.56 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Wolski – Turris4:18
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 3–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Ebbett6:34
xG 0.37–0.05 (87%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Belanger – Upshall – Wolski8:40
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Turris2:06
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Ekman-Larsson13:07
xG 1.25–0.74 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 3–0
- Yandle – Schlemko12:24
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:10
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).