Sun, Oct 24, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 1, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 06 | 112 | 128 |
| NYR | 017 | 212 | 15 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:26NYRMichal RozsivalAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Sean Avery · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:22NYRRyan CallahanPPGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Michal Rozsival · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 14:08NJDIlya KovalchukAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Matthew Corrente · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 19:59NYRBrandon DubinskyENAssists: Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:40NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:46NJDJason Arnott: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:35NYRErik Christensen: Holding2 min
- P1 19:10NYRSean Avery: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:16NYRMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:07NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11NJDIlya Kovalchuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:05NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:01NJDOlivier Magnan: Interference2 min
- P3 6:26NYRMichal Rozsival: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:50NJDJacob Josefson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pelley won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Josefson5:46
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Parise – Zajac7:46
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Arnott – Elias – Clarkson5:16
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Kovalchuk – Pelley2:15
xG 0.07–0.14 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMagnan – Greene7:41
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Greene – Taormina2:03
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Taormina2:34
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFrolov – Christensen – Prust9:06
xG 1.02–0.58 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan6:55
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Avery – Prust – Stepan2:25
xG 0.05–0.34 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov9:22
xG 0.17–0.50 (25%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi2:07
xG 0.56–0.01 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eminger – Gilroy5:59
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto13:44
xG 0.48–0.88 (35%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).