Sun, Oct 24, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 0, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 012 | 09 | 027 |
| CGY | 414 | 010 | 06 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12CGYRene BourquePPGWGAssists: Niklas Hagman, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:01CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Ian White · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 8:36CGYCraig ConroyAssists: Stefan Meyer, Tim Jackman · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 11:47CGYRene BourqueAssists: Alex Tanguay, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:31SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:36SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:36CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:00SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:36SJSAntero Niittymaki: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:53SJSDany Heatley: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:50CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09SJSNiclas Wallin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:43CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:50SJSDany Heatley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Nichol – McCarthy3:29
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – Couture3:37
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Clowe – McGinn – Couture2:18
xG 0.06–0.10 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Heatley – Setoguchi3:10
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Demers11:52
xG 0.50–0.20 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic15:31
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Boyle – Murray12:34
xG 0.15–0.58 (21%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Glencross – Backlund9:59
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Conroy – Jackman – Meyer7:10
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque10:51
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan9:38
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Giordano15:28
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Regehr – Bouwmeester12:22
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson9:50
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).