Mon, Oct 25, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 011 | 17 | 111 | 00 | 229 |
| MTL | 010 | 28 | 010 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:49PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Sami Lepisto · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:14MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:23MTLMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Roman Hamrlik, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 1:01PHXDerek MorrisPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:25MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Josh Gorges · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:57MTLJaroslav Spacek: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 3:32PHXRay Whitney: Interference2 min
- P1 4:31PHXVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
- P1 7:38PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 16:15MTLJosh Gorges: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:09PHXDerek Morris: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:23MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:18PHXRay Whitney: Holding2 min
- P2 19:53MTLTravis Moen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:57MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak9:03
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Prucha – Korpikoski2:19
xG 0.05–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Upshall – Wolski – Turris12:16
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Prucha – Korpikoski – Ebbett6:41
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski4:50
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle13:42
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson9:47
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Pyatt3:48
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Lapierre – Eller2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen3:08
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pouliot2:09
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Gorges13:39
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek15:39
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Picard – Subban9:52
xG 0.03–0.46 (6%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).