Mon, Oct 25, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 113 | 08 | 03 | 3 | 334 |
| MIN | 29 | 07 | 05 | 01 | 2 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52MINJohn MaddenAssists: Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.47 xG0–1
- P1 7:42MINNick SchultzAssists: Mikko Koivu, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 18:37LAKJarret StollPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 19:42LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
- 2. MIN Mikko Koivu scored
- 3. LAK Jack Johnson stopped
- 4. MIN Matt Cullen scored
- 5. LAK Jarret Stoll scored
- 6. MIN Marek Zidlicky stopped
- 7. LAK Justin Williams stopped
- 8. MIN Brent Burns stopped
- 9. LAK Michal Handzus scored
- 10. MIN Antti Miettinen stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:07MINClayton Stoner: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:01LAKKevin Westgarth: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:10MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P1 17:06MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:09LAKAlexei Ponikarovsky: Holding2 min
- P1 19:18MINGuillaume Latendresse: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:12LAKDustin Brown: Illegal check to head5 min
- P2 8:12LAKDustin Brown: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:22MINBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
- P2 18:40MINEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:36MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:53LAKJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll10:00
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Richardson – Kopitar2:30
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Richardson3:44
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Simmonds – Loktionov4:18
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrold – Drewiske7:58
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Greene12:44
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Johnson14:30
xG 0.53–1.44 (27%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMadden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck9:05
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Latendresse8:25
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Brodziak – Staubitz2:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (23%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:19
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns12:23
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Stoner – Falk8:23
xG 0.59–0.11 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky12:03
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 6–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).