Tue, Oct 26, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 110 | 08 | 122 |
| TOR | 18 | 08 | 211 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:19TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 14:27FLADennis WidemanPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 11:02TORColton OrrGWGAssists: Tim Brent, Fredrik Sjostrom · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 17:36TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:25TORClarke MacArthur: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:36FLADennis Wideman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:14TORMike Zigomanis: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:49TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:03FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinprecht – Hordichuk – Higgins4:30
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli4:46
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner11:07
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Higgins – Bernier4:29
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weaver – Garrison15:01
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov15:10
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Allen – Wideman17:12
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Versteeg – Grabovski15:51
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Brown7:21
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kessel – Kulemin – Bozak14:03
xG 0.15–0.41 (26%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn17:38
xG 0.63–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf15:56
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda12:16
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).