Tue, Oct 26, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 08 | 111 | 111 | 230 |
| OTT | 320 | 05 | 211 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 5:36OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Peter Regin, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 14:45OTTChris KellyGWGAssists: Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 4:15PHXSami LepistoAssists: Ray Whitney, Eric Belanger · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 6:58PHXKeith YandleAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 7:46OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Peter Regin, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–4
- P3 15:44OTTDaniel AlfredssonPPAssists: Alex Kovalev, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.34 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:15PHXShane Doan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:13OTTJesse Winchester: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:05OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P2 9:48OTTDavid Hale: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:13PHXVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:44OTTSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:15OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:32PHXEd Jovanovski: Interference2 min
- P3 14:49PHXAdrian Aucoin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:02PHXLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:49OTTMatt Carkner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:53OTTChris Phillips: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Doan – Belanger11:37
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Upshall – Wolski – Turris8:24
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Korpikoski – Ebbett4:08
xG 0.17–0.64 (20%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak7:42
xG 0.03–0.57 (6%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson10:21
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle12:28
xG 0.70–1.03 (41%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Aucoin – Jovanovski14:48
xG 0.79–1.18 (40%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Regin – Foligno10:46
xG 1.36–0.53 (72%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek9:35
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester4:46
xG 0.29–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:37
xG 0.37–0.90 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli12:17
xG 1.58–0.21 (88%)attempts 21–6goals 2–0
- Hale – Karlsson11:49
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:19
xG 0.48–1.14 (30%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).