Tue, Oct 26, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 39 | 210 | 526 |
| DAL | 114 | 016 | 17 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:06DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 0:28ANABobby RyanAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Toni Lydman · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 10:30ANABobby RyanAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:23ANAGeorge ParrosGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 6:08DALBrian SutherbyAssists: Brandon Segal, Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 10:11ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.29 xG4–2
- P3 15:30ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:51ANAPaul Mara: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57ANARyan Carter: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:59ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:27DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 14:42ANAAndreas Lilja: Holding2 min
- P2 17:30ANALubomir Visnovsky: Interference2 min
- P3 8:38DALBrad Richards: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:24DALStephane Robidas: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:24DALStephane Robidas: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Petersen won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestParros – Voros – Chipchura5:25
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Marchant – Bodie – Carter9:42
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan9:01
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Beleskey11:06
xG 0.23–1.04 (18%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lilja – Brookbank10:58
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Mara – Syvret12:58
xG 0.16–0.42 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky17:05
xG 0.40–1.42 (22%)attempts 13–19goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Ribeiro – Burish10:26
xG 1.33–0.23 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Petersen – Sutherby – Segal5:54
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal11:33
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ott – Wandell – Benn10:06
xG 0.10–0.31 (23%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Grossmann12:59
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Daley2:31
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Skrastins – Niskanen9:38
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).