Tue, Oct 26, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 18 | 116 | 115 | 00 | 339 |
| VAN | 116 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28COLDavid JonesAssists: Milan Hejduk, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:10VANJeff TambelliniAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:40COLDaniel WinnikAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, John-Michael Liles · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 7:31VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 4:58VANPeter SchaeferAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:27COLMatt DucheneAssists: Milan Hejduk, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:28VANMason RaymondGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:34COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:34VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:51COLDavid Van Der Gulik: Interference2 min
- P1 16:54COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:41VANRyan Kesler: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:24COLPhilippe Dupuis: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 15:12VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stewart – Galiardi11:53
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Dupuis – McLeod2:44
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly9:29
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene9:36
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Wilson2:18
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Quincey12:48
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Hannan – Wilson10:57
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Tambellini12:04
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen10:34
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Schaefer – Desbiens – Glass2:14
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond13:04
xG 0.19–0.54 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Parent8:48
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Alberts12:03
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler14:14
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).