Wed, Oct 27, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Atlanta Thrashers 6, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 112 | 28 | 36 | 626 |
| NYR | 110 | 17 | 211 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 11:28ATLBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Ron Hainsey · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 10:17ATLEvander KaneAssists: Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Stewart · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 12:48NYRSean AveryAssists: Dan Girardi, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 16:07ATLNiclas BergforsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 0:49ATLEric BoultonAssists: Anthony Stewart, Rich Peverley · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 5:01ATLDustin ByfuglienPPGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 7:56NYRTodd WhiteAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 10:07NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Sean Avery, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 19:36ATLAndrew LaddENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.53 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:39NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:49NYRMichal Rozsival: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:35ATLDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:43NYRMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Stewart – Peverley6:11
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Stewart – Kane – Burmistrov2:18
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Eager12:58
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little9:58
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey13:39
xG 0.82–0.75 (52%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Oduya2:32
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:48
xG 0.60–0.87 (41%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Dubinsky – Callahan3:34
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Frolov – Christensen – Prust12:51
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Boyle2:27
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Stepan9:27
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Staal16:15
xG 0.97–0.65 (60%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Eminger – Gilroy14:03
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto16:36
xG 1.03–1.42 (42%)attempts 22–14goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).