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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 27, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Washington Capitals 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0

Away

Washington Capitals

3

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.

CAR winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH17011215333
CAR08011010029

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:47WSHMatt HendricksGWGAssists: David Steckel, John Erskine · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P3 12:23WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Mike Knuble, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P3 18:32WSHNicklas BackstromENAssists: Mike Knuble, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 11:27WSHKarl Alzner: Boarding2 min
  2. P1 16:35CARJoe Corvo: Interference2 min
  3. P2 7:16CAREric Staal: Holding2 min
  4. P2 8:44WSHMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 11:25CARTuomo Ruutu: Holding2 min
  6. P2 12:07WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 16:50WSHAlex Ovechkin: Charging2 min
  8. P3 17:17WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
47% to win53% to win
← WSH attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHCAR
33Shots on goal29
3.7Expected goals2.0
72Shot attempts60
41Faceoffs won29
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
20Hits23
16Blocked shots20
4Giveaways3
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.0 xGWSH 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1200 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.53 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.

CAR winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).