Thu, Oct 28, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 04 | 08 | 020 |
| BOS | 111 | 110 | 011 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:19BOSPatrice BergeronPPGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 12:26BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:03BOSMark Stuart: Interference2 min
- P1 8:48BOSBrad Marchand: Throwing equipment2 min
- P1 11:57TORMike Zigomanis: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:37TORBrett Lebda: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:40TORColton Orr: Interference2 min
- P2 5:13BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:58TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:58BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:58BOSNathan Horton: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:51BOSDennis Seidenberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:04BOSAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Kulemin – Bozak6:38
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Sjostrom – Brent – Caputi5:03
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kessel – Bozak6:54
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zigomanis – Orr – Brown3:45
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Lebda7:29
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Phaneuf4:08
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:53
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Ryder – Seguin8:44
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron7:13
xG 0.43–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic8:59
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand5:56
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – McQuaid7:45
xG 0.40–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference12:05
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart2:42
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).