Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 315 | 09 | 112 | 436 |
| DET | 011 | 117 | 117 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Petr Prucha · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:55PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Ray Whitney, Ed Jovanovski · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 11:56PHXLauri KorpikoskiSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 13:05DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 3:56DETTomas HolmstromAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 19:02PHXLauri KorpikoskiENUnassisted · Snap, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:43DETJakub Kindl: Elbowing2 min
- P1 7:51DETMike Modano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:05PHXAndrew Ebbett: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:38PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28PHXDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:32DETTomas Holmstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:33PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 11:44PHXIlya Bryzgalov: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min · PPG
- P3 4:28DETTodd Bertuzzi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:05PHXDerek Morris: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:12DETTomas Holmstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Korpikoski – Turris4:46
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Prucha – Ebbett9:59
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak9:32
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger8:11
xG 0.35–0.81 (30%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Yandle2:19
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Ekman-Larsson8:25
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson3:47
xG 0.05–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHolmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:45
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen8:08
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Modano – Cleary – Hudler6:04
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm7:39
xG 0.36–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart7:46
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Janik – Kronwall12:04
xG 0.75–0.33 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Salei – Kronwall3:04
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).