Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 011 | 18 | 00 | 0 | 227 |
| CBJ | 218 | 08 | 013 | 02 | 2 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: Chris Clark, Kyle Wilson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:20EDMShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:09CBJKyle WilsonAssists: Derick Brassard, Chris Clark · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 9:57EDMTaylor HallAssists: Theo Peckham, Ales Hemsky · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 2. CBJ Rick Nash scored
- 3. EDM Gilbert Brule stopped
- 4. CBJ Nikita Filatov scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:39CBJJared Boll: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 8:00EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:27EDMJim Vandermeer: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:27CBJJared Boll: Diving2 min
- P1 15:24EDMTom Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P1 15:48CBJDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:54EDMRyan Whitney: Delaying game2 min
- P2 6:56CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:45EDMTheo Peckham: Interference2 min
- P3 2:08EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:17CBJR.J. Umberger: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:41EDMShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:45CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Boarding2 min
- OT 2:27EDMTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Penner – Gagner5:41
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Eberle – Paajarvi9:11
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall2:08
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Fraser – MacIntyre – Jones2:42
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Peckham12:26
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Whitney12:07
xG 0.58–0.69 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
- Strudwick – Smid9:34
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Filatov5:54
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Dorsett9:36
xG 0.24–0.25 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek8:59
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Wilson6:40
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Stralman10:03
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – Holden2:03
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Holden11:47
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).