Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 08 | 218 | 331 |
| OTT | 010 | 311 | 27 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02FLABryan McCabePPAssists: Dennis Wideman, David Booth · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 5:20OTTMilan MichalekSHAssists: Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 13:18OTTMike FisherAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–2
- P2 14:49OTTZack SmithAssists: Ryan Shannon, Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 1:23OTTAlex KovalevGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.38 xG1–4
- P3 3:50OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Mike Fisher, Milan Michalek · Snap, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 6:09FLAChris HigginsAssists: Marty Reasoner · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 19:03FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Cory Stillman, Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:20OTTNick Foligno: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 11:16FLARadek Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 4:17OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:00OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:00FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:40OTTAlex Kovalev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Olesz – Booth6:51
xG 0.74–0.36 (67%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Reinprecht – Hordichuk2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Booth – Matthias2:02
xG 0.04–0.03 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner7:58
xG 0.11–0.21 (36%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov15:25
xG 1.30–0.60 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison16:03
xG 0.73–0.84 (47%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Allen – Wideman16:24
xG 0.51–0.89 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Regin – Foligno14:56
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester7:23
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly10:56
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek11:33
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampoli – Karlsson3:10
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips16:51
xG 0.95–0.76 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 2–1
- Hale – Karlsson14:01
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).