Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 3, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 112 | 27 | 334 |
| NSH | 08 | 011 | 05 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:56STLAlexander SteenSHGWGAssists: David Perron, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 12:48STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Brad Boyes, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 15:15STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: David Backes, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:32STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:32NSHJ-P Dumont: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:32NSHJ-P Dumont: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:52NSHAlexander Sulzer: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:22STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20NSHJordin Tootoo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:14STLBrad Boyes: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:02STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:11NSHJordin Tootoo: Charging5 min · PPG
- P3 13:11NSHJordin Tootoo: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Perron9:21
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Berglund12:04
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Sobotka5:40
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini9:12
xG 0.21–0.66 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Johnson14:41
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo14:55
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Strachan10:09
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Ward – Tootoo8:37
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Smithson – Kostitsyn – Spaling5:25
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dumont – Erat – Wilson8:43
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist11:52
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – O'Brien2:07
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Klein – O'Brien12:24
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Sulzer – Franson13:31
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).