Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 07 | 111 | 122 |
| MIN | 16 | 16 | 05 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48MINChuck KobasewAssists: Andrew Brunette, Clayton Stoner · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 19:44MINMikko KoivuPPGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 18:24WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Green · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:07WSHTyler Sloan: Interference2 min
- P2 3:04MINBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
- P2 10:19MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:33WSHMatt Bradley: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:44WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:04WSHMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:31WSHJason Chimera: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:00
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Laich – Semin – Perreault4:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault2:54
xG 0.09–0.15 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin5:03
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Carlson3:14
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Erskine – Alzner2:41
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson9:34
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Brodziak – Staubitz – Gillies4:45
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck10:01
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cullen – Havlat – Wellman9:40
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew9:36
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Burns15:43
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky15:55
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Stoner – Falk11:02
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).