Thu, Oct 28, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 5, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 16 | 26 | 212 | 524 |
| DAL | 16 | 014 | 112 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:30LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–0
- P1 16:02DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:05LAKAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 13:14LAKWayne SimmondsGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 4:40LAKWillie MitchellSHAssists: Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 10:10DALBrandon SegalAssists: Brian Sutherby, Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 18:19LAKJustin WilliamsENAssists: Davis Drewiske, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.56 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:16DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 3:19DALKarlis Skrastins: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:47LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min
- P1 15:05LAKJustin Williams: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:27LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:55DALSteve Ott: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:43LAKMatt Greene: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:23DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23DALNicklas Grossmann: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:23LAKKevin Westgarth: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:24LAKRob Scuderi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestHandzus – Ponikarovsky – Simmonds3:30
xG 0.93–0.07 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll11:25
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Richardson – Kopitar12:59
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Clifford – Schenn4:20
xG 0.03–0.25 (10%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson11:56
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Greene – Muzzin6:16
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Drewiske5:58
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Petersen – Sutherby – Segal4:31
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Ott – Burish – Wandell7:16
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:07
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:22
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Skrastins – Niskanen10:12
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Grossmann – Larsen11:30
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Daley – Fistric13:12
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).