Thu, Oct 28, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 6, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 212 | 315 | 636 |
| CGY | 28 | 28 | 13 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45CGYNiklas HagmanPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 7:47COLChris StewartPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:41CGYTim JackmanAssists: Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 11:43CGYMatt StajanAssists: Jarome Iginla, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 16:15COLChris StewartAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 16:44COLChris StewartAssists: Matt Duchene, Kyle Cumiskey · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 18:29CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Niklas Hagman, Rene Bourque · Snap, 0.31 xG3–4
- P3 1:55COLBrandon YipAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Ryan Wilson · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 6:04COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Paul Stastny, Jonas Holos · Wrist, 0.29 xG5–4
- P3 14:25CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–5
- P3 17:40COLDaniel WinnikGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.36 xG6–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:25COLDavid Liffiton: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:25CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25COLJohn-Michael Liles: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:02COLJohn-Michael Liles: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:37CGYAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:57CGYJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:47CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P2 3:49CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26CGYCory Sarich: Interference2 min
- P2 11:45CGYStefan Meyer: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:45COLPhilippe Dupuis: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:03COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:20CGYNiklas Hagman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stewart – Galiardi8:09
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Winnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly3:10
xG 0.52–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene8:21
xG 0.17–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly7:18
xG 0.08–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCumiskey – Holos10:51
xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 17–7goals 3–1
- Quincey – Wilson2:36
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Liles – Liffiton2:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestConroy – Jackman – Meyer2:45
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque7:12
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Morrison – Bourque – Backlund2:42
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan12:19
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Mikkelson12:38
xG 0.89–0.27 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- White – Giordano12:54
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Regehr – Bouwmeester12:18
xG 0.29–1.02 (22%)attempts 7–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).