Fri, Oct 29, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 112 | 04 | 210 | 326 |
| NYI | 07 | 113 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 16:45NYIMatt MartinAssists: Frans Nielsen, Trent Hunter · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 7:19MTLBenoit PouliotGWGAssists: Jeff Halpern, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:11MTLTravis MoenAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:24NYIJon Sim: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 4:12MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P1 11:46NYIZenon Konopka: Interference2 min
- P1 11:46MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:11MTLMaxim Lapierre: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:32NYIJack Hillen: Holding2 min
- P2 10:18MTLHal Gill: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 19:56MTLHal Gill: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:56NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:50MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:49MTLRoman Hamrlik: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Konopka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Gionta – Moen11:28
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Halpern – Darche – Pouliot3:03
xG 0.31–0.09 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Lapierre – Pyatt – Eller2:43
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Lapierre – Pyatt3:31
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPicard – Subban12:03
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Gill – Gorges14:13
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek13:32
xG 0.58–0.72 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Hunter – Nielsen – Martin5:16
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Weight – Comeau – Bailey9:29
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares8:46
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Hillen3:07
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jurcina – Hillen6:49
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Mottau – Wisniewski14:13
xG 0.55–0.75 (42%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).