Fri, Oct 29, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 28 | 118 | 438 |
| NYR | 011 | 318 | 014 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:29CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Anton Babchuk, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 0:56CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Erik Cole, Eric Staal · Slap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 4:06NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Michal Rozsival · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 12:24NYRMarc StaalPPAssists: Erik Christensen, Alex Frolov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 13:19CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 15:43NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:01CARErik ColePPGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:42CARPatrick O'Sullivan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:30NYRRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:48NYRSteve Eminger: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02CARChad LaRose: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:18CARJoni Pitkanen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:48CARJay Harrison: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:28NYRBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:49NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Boarding2 min
- P3 0:00CARJoni Pitkanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Jokinen – Staal3:01
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Kostopoulos – Sutter6:07
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner11:06
xG 0.91–0.77 (54%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – LaRose – Sutter4:29
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain13:03
xG 1.33–0.69 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Corvo – Gleason14:08
xG 0.85–1.23 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Harrison – Babchuk13:33
xG 0.76–1.20 (39%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFrolov – Christensen – Stepan3:19
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Frolov – Prust – Stepan4:34
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- White – Christensen – Grachev3:59
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov10:15
xG 0.66–0.67 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto12:44
xG 1.74–0.87 (67%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Eminger – Gilroy12:30
xG 0.80–0.82 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Staal14:49
xG 0.73–1.05 (41%)attempts 9–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).